In the time since I wrote the original post, things have changed. I’ve also re-evaluated my positions on some of the topics, so an update seemed like a good idea. As always, I’m going to remind you that it’s impossible to prepare for every disaster. Additionally, despite your preparations, commitment and best intentions, your survival and safety aren’t guaranteed. Now, to the matter at hand.
Man versus Machine
My thoughts on this one haven’t changed. Artificial Intelligence, AI, and robotics are the next big things on the horizon. Vast new fortunes are sure to be made, and society will be transformed into who-knows-what. My concern, however, lies in the fact that we tend to release the genie from the bottle before we fully understand what we’ve created. Social media is a good example of a seemingly harmless technology that has wreaked havoc on society and destroyed tens of thousands of lives.
Of course, vast fortunes have been made so many are perfectly willing to overlook the damage to individuals and civil discourse. Given how quickly social media has been weaponized, I remain highly skeptical of AI. Why not unleash the full power of AI to find cures for HIV/AIDS, Cancer and Alzheimer’s? Far more than money, this would truly improve the quality of life for billions around the world. It would also mark a turning point in our behavior as individuals and as a species.
While AI may be nearly ready for prime time, robots and robotics still have a long way to go. As I said, machines uniting to overthrow their human overlords is a leap I’m not able to make.
Zombie Apocalypse
In a sense, this is already happening. Think about it, for many, higher brain functions have broken down and they walk through life in a mindless, unthinking state. Worse, they believe everything they see on TV and read on the Internet. You’re not feeling this one, huh? I’m of the belief that nature is far more frightening and possesses more power than we can ever hope to control. In the absence of some yet unknown super virus or pathogen, I’m keeping my money on Rabies, though, I’m still not much of a gambler!
Covid-19 is still a thing, despite our collective behavior and often misinformed beliefs. Recent reports are calling attention to the cases of H5N1, Avian flu, spreading in poultry flocks and more alarmingly, being found in raw milk. In communities across Southern California, the deaths of house cats have been reported from drinking contaminated raw milk or pet food containing contaminated raw milk.
To be sure, viruses are cyclical- the flu, for starters- and there’s no shortage of them. While no one has come forward to forecast the next pandemic, it’s silly and dangerous to assume that it’s not coming. And herein lies the problem. So much of the response to Covid-19 was based upon the infringement or personal freedoms, real and imagined. For some, going to the hair salon or corner bar was more important than keeping themselves and their families safe. As individuals, we’re entitled to make those decisions for ourselves and for our families regardless of how well informed or misinformed we may be. But we cannot make those decisions for others. The loss of life during the next pandemic will be orders of magnitude worse than it needs to be because of misinformation, politics, and simple greed. Whatever nature has in store for us, we will make it worse.
Alien Invasion
I can only hope that when it’s finally revealed that life exists elsewhere in the universe, they’re not violent, cruel and fearful like we are. That would be both unfortunate and fatal for us. Let’s keep moving.
World War 3
This one is far more nuanced. Is it likely that Putin would move Russian forces into Poland, the Baltic States or Alaska? I don’t see any reality, alternate or otherwise, in which any of those scenarios work out even remotely favorably for him. Granted, the United States and NATO have largely been fighting Russia for the past 3 years, there are still lines no one has been willing to cross. Yet. I'm guessing that things in the Ukraine haven't quite worked out the way he intended. The West rallied to help and the United Stated has provided weapons, material and technical support. to the effort. The devastation to both countries will take decades to repair and the loss of life is irreplaceable. The trauma and horrors of war will take far longer to fade away. Is Putin looking for an excuse to launch a limited, tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine? Possibly.
North Korean troops are presently being slaughtered on the ground in Ukraine. Their presence thousands of miles from home and in a war in which they have zero to gain is disturbing and yet another provocation. Are they getting the much-needed training for a conflict closer to home? Only time will tell. How will the South Koreans and the Japanese respond? How will China, South Korea and North Korea respond to a far more militarily capable and assertive Japan? Again, there are lots of nuances to these relationships and horrendous behavior isn’t neither easily forgiven nor forgotten, no matter how far in the past it may be.
Is Xi Jinping biding his time to conduct his own special military operation against Taiwan? Likely. As a prelude, perhaps he’s planning to congratulate his re-elected American buddy by gifting him a new and even deadlier virus? It certainly wouldn’t be outside the realm of possibility. The 2023 Chinese spy balloon affairs and repeated high-level computer hacking events are also unhelpful. They’re dangerous and embarrassing provocations that could easily trigger an outsized response, even among frenemies.
The 2023 war between Israel and Hamas. The conflict only worsened by the escalating tit-for-tat between Israeli and Iran and the strikes on Hezbollah positions in neighboring Lebanon. During all of this, the Assad regime in Syria seemingly collapsed overnight. The truth is more complicated. Eleven years is a long time to be at war with yourself. Both Russia and Iran were busy with the war with Ukraine and the conflict with Israel, respectively. Given that his allies and benefactors were otherwise engaged, Assad was unable to mount sufficient resistance to the forces seeking to topple him. Israel, viewing this a moment to decisively ensure the future security of the state, refuses to back down or relent until the threats no longer exist. Surely, everyone can see how this crucible of avowed mortal enemies can boil over at any moment.
The events in the Red Sea from later October 2023 to the Spring of 2024 and the Houthis are another powder keg waiting to blow. We do love our crises, right?
Brinksmanship, provocation and proxy wars have the potential to spiral out of control. So, while I don’t think World War 3 will start because China, North Korea, Russia, or Iran throws down the gauntlet, I can see a smaller conflict, a covert operation, a miscalculation mushrooming into a full-on conflagration.
TEOTWAWKI
I’ve long thought that we will be the cause of our undoing. Specifically, our propensity for cruelty, violence, and greed will be the spark that sets off a series of events. Human civilization is precariously balanced. Billionaires craving even more money and power; the class struggle politicians claim to understand yet do nothing about; ethnic and racial tensions; the damage wrought by incompetent and ineffective elected officials; hyperinflation and the collapse of the financial system, take your pick.
I refuse to give any credibility to the notion of a civil war. Such talk is incredibly dangerous and profoundly immature. The real problem is that we’re a country of spoiled children who act out when our demands aren’t met. Let’s grow up and preserve our rare and wonderful gift before it’s too late.
Of course, a series of natural events such as a CME, coronal mass ejection, an asteroid impact, an increase of a few degrees in average global temperature would all be enough to end our time in the sun.
I’ve oversimplified the major flashpoints and as I said, there’s no shortage of conflicts on this awesome blue marble we call home. Some of these events can be planned for. Others can be avoided but they require courage, thoughtfulness along with careful planning and effective stewardship. Bottom line: make plans and build your kits.
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